Southern University head football coach Stump Mitchell says he’s secure about his job situation, and optimistic about the Jaguars chances to compete for a SWAC football title in 2012. Unfortunately, the numbers on Southern don’t bear that out for a team that last posted a winning season in 2009 and a coach who has never had a winning record in stops at Morgan State and Southern.

4 – The 2012 schedule gives the Jags three winnable chances out of four home games this year against Mississippi Valley State, Texas Southern and the University of Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Out-of-conference contests against New Mexico and Florida A&M, combined with the usual SWAC East divisional contenders Alabama A&M, Alabama State and Jackson State, project a hard way for the Jags to travel this fall.

6 – Southern was ranked sixth in scoring offense and defense in 2011, and was dead last in rushing and run defense. The SWAC may be a passing league, but an inability to run or stop the run spells defeat for a unit that showed offensive firepower in flashes last year, and usually in comeback situations.

14 – Stump Mitchell is trending downward as a head coaching option in Baton Rouge. The school, known more for its financial struggles than its football, needs a winner. Now. With a 6-16 record in two years at SU, and 14-40 over his career, a return to the NFL as a running back coach may be in his immediate future. With a new athletic director, growing impatience from fans, and a need for the Southern brand to be resurrected this year, the pressure may too much for Mitchell and the team to overcome.

Southern University Stump Mitchell